Friday, July 01, 2011

Israel will attack Assad personally in a war. Otherwise Israel expects regime to survive

Two bits of news regarding Syria.

1) Israel has issued another threat against Assad personally. I don't think Assad is significantly more vulnerable than Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon. In other words, Assad would be inconvenienced if he went underground, but Israeli attempts to kill him personally might work but probably would not.
Israel sent a message to Syrian President Bashar Assad in recent days, warning him that if he started a war with the Jewish state in order to divert attention from domestic problems, Israel will target him personally, Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida reported on Tuesday.
2) The International Business Time's sources expect Assad to survive the current disturbances in the country. I also expect him to survive though his long-term survival is dependent on elections that convince the people of his country that his supporters outnumber his opponents as well as other reforms to Syria's political system.
At the same time, analysts also cited the weapons as a source of worry, as if the leader was forced to step down, which now seems increasingly unlikely, many countries are scared the ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons could fall in even more volatile hands and send the whole region into turmoil.

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