Wednesday, August 25, 2010
My take on Bushehr is that it is subject to delays until it is on line, connected to Iran's power system and is fueled to the degree agreed. I hope it comes on line in September as scheduled but has some skepticism.
If a US/Russian agreement to give Iran Bushehr in exchange for the sanctions and possibly for the S-300s was made, I think Bushehr may be better for Iran than the sanctions are harmful. The US fairly clearly does have enough leverage over Russia that the steps that have been taken recently would not have been taken against US objections. However, it is not clear that we've seen the US drop all objections to the project, rather than hoping to intensify the pressure by having the reactor nearly but not fully operational.
Bushehr operational, if it happens, will put a new perspective on Iran's nuclear program and make demands that it halt enrichment less credible. Iran's aim that the sanctions kind of fade into meaninglessness over time will be advanced by Iran having an operational reactor and ongoing enrichment without event and years turn to decades.
I'm cautiously happy about this event.
Posted by Arnold Evans at 2:40 AM