Through the New York Times, the Obama administration has been broadcasting the fact that it has continued Bush's program to use covert actions to slow Iran's nuclear program and to destabilize the country by supporting separatist fighters.
Another possible problem for Iran is the Western sabotage efforts. In January, The New York Times reported that President Bush had ordered a broad covert program against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, including efforts to undermine electrical and computer systems that keep the nuclear program running. The Obama administration has been silent about the progress of that program, one of the most heavily classified of the United States government.and
The result was a compromise: limited covert action carried out by proxy, in the case of the Baluch, through Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate or, I.S.I., and in the case of the Kurds by the C.I.A. in cooperation with Israel’s Mossad. My knowledge of the I.S.I.’s role is based on first-hand Pakistani sources, including Baluch leaders. Evidence of the C.I.A. role in providing weapons aid and training to Pejak, the principal Kurdish rebel group in Iran, has been spelled out by three U.S. journalists, Jon Lee Anderson and Seymour Hersh of the New Yorker and Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times, who have interviewed a variety of Pejak leaders.The latest attack on an Iranian physicist as he left his home in Tehran - in this environment of the US not even seriously pretending it is not involved seems likely to me to lead to increases in covert hostilities on both sides that are in the interest of neither side.
The United States is planning to surge troops into Afghanistan. I'm confident saying Iran will oppose US efforts in Afghanistan more than it has to this point. I'm not quite comfortable saying Iran will lean on Afghanistan enough to ensure that Afghanistan is in worse shape from the US point of view in January 2011 than it is today.
Looking at the timing of this attack, it comes as there have been grumblings that progress was being made on entering formal negotiations over Iran's nuclear program without an Iranian suspension. Interestingly, Israeli press began releasing reports that Iran has already suspended and had stated so quietly in Iranian papers. I don't trust these reports as news, until more information comes out, maybe there is some basis to the story, maybe there is not. The release of the stories would embarrass any Iranian in private talks with the West. I assume that was the point of the release, to embarrass Iran away from negotiations with the US.
This attack is beginning to form a pattern along with the October attack on Revolutionary Guards in Balochistan. And like the earlier attack, this attack has the potential to raise the price Iranians demand for cooperation and convince Iranians that the West is not a suitable negotiating partner.
There is a fundamental misalignment of interests. The US' direct interests lies in reaching a way to live with Iran with minimal hostility. The United States is not threatened by an Iranian nuclear capability the way Israel is. As long is Iran will not relinquish its right to nuclear technology, Israel's interest lies in maximal hostility between the US and Iran.
One way to break that would be for Iran to inform Israel, through the US that these attacks increase the amount of uranium Iran will require in its domestic stock for any long term arrangement. If the attacks are not counter-productive for Israel, Israel has the resources to ensure they continue even contrary to the preferences of the US.
In the meantime, the attack happened, and now that it is part of the real environment, the situation will change accordingly. Iran has nearly no choice but to respond, and US positions in Iraq and Afghanistan are the most favorable places for an Iranian response. The response will be covert, we may never hear of it, we certainly will not see a conclusive tie to Iran, but it will happen and may continue a downward spiral in US/Iranian relations.
