Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Polling a two state solution

A lot of polling information from OneVoice (pdf), an organization devoted to advancing the idea of a two-state solution.

I've always felt like poll answers to "two state solution" are misleading because Israelis are answering "two states with a demilitarized Palestine that accepts the permanent expulsion of the refugees, while Palestinians are answering "two states both fully sovereign as well as a return of the refugees"

When the terms of a two state solution are spelled out, it is no more popular than a one-state solution.

From this poll, Israel having to agree on the number of refugees to return is unacceptable to 75% of Palestinians despite a "two state solution" being unacceptable only to 24%. While every scenario where Palestinians return has greater than 50% unacceptable for Israelis, but a two state solution is only unacceptable to 21%. The Israeli and Palestinian side are hearing the phrase "two state solution" and interpreting them as different, mutually exclusive concepts.

Then groups advocating a two-state solution announce these misleading results with the sometimes intentional, sometimes unintentional concurrent effect of justifying the status quo "while negotiations are underway." This is part of the "fiction that serves U.S. purposes" of pretending to make progress while actually working to ensure nothing changes earlier discussed by George Friedman at Stratfor.

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