Sunday, June 07, 2009

Obama and Clinton see bad trends for Israel. What are they?

Barack Obama, NPR interview - June 1, 2009:

I believe that, strategically, the status quo is unsustainable when it comes to Israeli security; that, over time, in the absence of peace with the Palestinians, Israel will continue to be threatened militarily and will have enormous problems along its borders.

Hillary Clinton, CNN interview - June 7, 2009:

We see historical, demographic, political, technological trends that are very troubling as to Israel's future. At the same time, there is a legitimate aspiration of the Palestinian people that needs to be addressed.

This sounds like what Obama and Clinton are saying is that the United States does not expect to have the resources to contain Iran indefinitely and with an uncontained Iran, it will not be possible to maintain its string of pro-Israel dictatorships over most of the Arab world indefinitely.

But if they are going make vague references to threats and troubling trends, why wouldn't somebody ask them to spell them out?

The obvious corrollary, either that the Palestinians can get better terms by waiting, or that if they do not accept a state today, they will be able to get one Palestinian-majority state over the entire territory later, is probably too painful for either Obama or Clinton to even contemplate.


Lysander said...

After Hizb's loss in the election, what do you see happening in Iran on Friday? Will it make a difference if the moderate Mousavi wins? Would he concede enrichment in exchange for a pat on the head?

Or could he pursue the same foreign policy as Ahmadinijad but with more style?

Arnold Evans said...

Yesterday, I expected/hoped for a slim Hezbollah win. It looks like Hezbollah lost pretty big. I think they'll still have a blocking vote in the cabinet, but we'll see.

I expect/hope to see a Mousavi victory. Ahmadinejad is outspoken but has mainstream Iranian views, even though the presentation of his views has been harshly distorted in the West.

Mousavi will not be as prone to distortion so that is a plus. Another thing is that after the demonization of Ahmadinejad (and equally that the anti-Iranians overreached with wiped off the map and got caught), it will be hard to make Mousavi into a threat, just because he has a calmer manner. Even though he also has mainstream Iranian views.

Strategically, nothing changes in Iran. If Hezbollah gets a blocking minority in cabinet, nothing changes there either. Nothing changes anyway because nobody can disarm Hezbollah until somehow Hezbollah agrees to fold its army into Lebanon's.