Saturday, April 04, 2009

Polls of Two State Solution among Palestinians
Do you support or reject the creation of two states on the historic land of Palestine (a Palestinian state and Israel)?

Total West Bank Gaza Strip
I support
42.5 41.7 43.8
I reject
54.3 56.2 51.0
No opinion/I do not know
3.2 2.1 5.2
100.0 100.0 100.0
Q.11 Some believe that a two-state formula is the favored solution for the Israeli –Palestinian conflict, while others believe that historic Palestine cannot be divided and thus the favored solution is a bi-national state on all of Palestine where Palestinians and Israelis enjoy equal representation and rights. Which of these solutions do you prefer?

Total West Bank Gaza
n= 1198 n= 758 n= 440
Two-state solution : an Israeli and a Palestinian
54.8 57.1 50.9
Bi-national state on all of historic Palestine
18.4 19.8 15.9
Palestinian State * 10.7 4.7 20.9
Islamic State * 1.6 1.8 1.1
Others 0.7 1.0 0.5
No solution 10.0 12.1 6.4
I don’t know 2.7 2.5 3.0
No answer 1.1 1.0 1.3

* These answers were not included as part of the options read to the interviewee.
1.23 Hopes for a future political solution of the conflict with Israel

One state with equal rights for all 20
One Islamic state 33
Two states 35
Three states 3
Don't know 9
It certainly overstates the case to say that Palestinians clearly prefer a two state solution to a one state solution. The poll, that I've seen used to advance that argument, strikes me as having a weird description of a binational state, with its explicit statement of equal representation for Palestinians and Israelis. My immediate interpretation of that was that regardless of population, Jews ("Israelis") would be kept at political parity with non-Jews in the scenario contemplated, even if that meant giving them disproportionate political power to their votes. In that poll, interestingly, over 10% of respondents spontaneously offered different one-state solutions.

The FAFO poll comes to me via Debka. I'm not sure to what degree "one state with equal rights for all" necessarily contradicts "one Islamic state". Most supporters of Zionism today describe Israel other than the occupied territories as a Jewish state with equal rights for all. After the return of refugees to the territory if not to their original homes, there would be a stable Muslim majority rendering the state "Islamic" in whatever way Israel is "Jewish" now.

But one state certainly outpolls two states in the abstract. From there it only becomes more pronounced because any two state solution approved by Israel would have severe limitations on the sovereignty of the Palestinian state. To present the types of solutions actually offered would further decrease the popularity of a two-state solution.

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