Thursday, November 22, 2007

Annapolis Mideast Conference Next Week

This conference will have no impact on the ground. It's the type of event that the current Bush administration would hold.

The Arabs, mainly the Saudis, are trying to maneuver Israel and the United States to put their names behind a proposal, especially for the issue of the refugees. That will not happen either before, at or after the conference.

I'm rereading the narrative that the Israelis have become honorary Sunnis from the Saudi point of view. I have not read any statement by the Saudis or seen any action they've taken that implies that.

This conference does not strike me as an important event. It seems safe to say that before Annapolis equals after Annapolis. We'll see the end of the Bush administration not only without a comprehensive peace deal, but also without a proposal from any official Israeli or US source about how to deal with the refugee issue.

Why have these untalented foreign policy communities (in the US and the Arab world) attached such importance to it? Because this is the exact type of event that untalented foreign policy communities attach too much importance too. Communities that cannot wrap their minds around the idea that what happens on the ground is more important than appearances. The idea that appearing clever is different and less important than having an impact on the ground.

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