Ahmadinejad recently speaking about the possibility of Iranian participation in an international fuel bank reminds me of his September suggestion that Iran purchase fuel for its medical reactor. Meaning it may be a preview of an agreement now being worked on.
"One of the most important issues of today is definitely nuclear cooperation at the international level, whether in building a power station or reactor or whether it is about Iran's presence in the global fuel bank," Ahmadinejad said.With this, it seems as if several somewhat puzzling happenings in the Middle East are beginning to become explainable together.
ArmsControlWonk in September gave a very rough outline of how a multi-national enrichment facility in Iran could provide the West with huge amounts of information about Iran's nuclear program and make it impossible for Iran to build a parallel program in secret.
Now that we know about at least this one covert facility, it is the time to reach a deal with Iran about placing a multinational enrichment facility on Iranian soil. This may seem paradoxical, but such a facility is the best way of ensuring that Iran cannot set up other secret enrichment facilities later. We obviously now know that “suspension” is not the answer; they can use the freedom such inactivity gives their workers to setup new plants outside the prying IAEA inspectors’ view. We need to be with the Iranian scientists and engineers 24 hours a day, seven days a week to understand what they are doing. Of course, the first step will be to require lists of workers at both the covert and overt enrichment plants as well as enough supporting documentation (shift schedules, pay stubs, payroll accounts come immediately to mind) to instill confidence in the West that we know everyone who has worked there. Of course, while we are checking those documents, Westerners can be working in the plants; keeping an eye on those already there. They could start that tomorrow.If this is the direction the US has decided to take, it would remove uncertainty about hidden nuclear programs in Iran in exchange for giving Iran a clear overt pathway towards nuclear capability if chose to redirect its efforts to a weapon.
If an agreement such as this is reached, the Middle East has become a new world, the US will be explicitly accepting an Iranian nuclear weapons capability and even if the US maintains its sanctions on Iran's support for anti-Iranian groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, it will give up the most effective tool it had ever found for gaining international cooperation in its campaign to sanction Iran.
I had thought the US had been overly reassuring to Israel recently. In that Hillary dramatically announced that she was on Israel's side on the settlements when she could have just continued US policy of quietly accepting it to cause less embarrassment for the US' string of Arab puppets. Her activities make sense as efforts to assuage Israeli apprehension about its support from the US after the US finally openly accepts an Iranian latent nuclear weapons capability.
If there are Israelis who still believe there is a possibility that Iran be left without nuclear capability, then they will be hugely disappointed by any deal that disclaims such a possibility. They'll blame the deal and the deal-maker but in fact this will just have been an acceptance of reality.
2010 will tell. The United States essentially has a choice between this and the status quo. I think a multi-national fuel production effort that gives the US rapid and close information about Iran's program, and more importantly, allows the US to declare victory and gracefully move away from its "no enrichment" position is the better choice from the US point of view. US negotiators may agree.
