tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post925702286264402928..comments2024-01-21T02:42:13.447-05:00Comments on Middle East Reality: Stratfor Says a US/Iran Deal Over Iraq in WorksArnold Evanshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11445744338502151561noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-60612239287575370252007-05-19T22:36:00.000-04:002007-05-19T22:36:00.000-04:00The key issue for me is not any detente. It is th...The key issue for me is not any detente. It is that the US may be willing to accept <BR/><BR/>1-that it cannot have a pro-US government in Iraq and <BR/><BR/>2-that it should stop supporting parties in Iraq that are working towards dissolving the country (even at the cost of giving up its dreams of long-term bases).<BR/><BR/>I really hope this is the case. I think the US will eventually reach both conclusions but the sooner, the less likely the entire edifice of US Middle East policy is destroyed. <BR/><BR/>Also the sooner the US reaches both conclusions, the sooner the Iraqi people are freed from the misery the US invasion imposed on them.Arnold Evanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11445744338502151561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-8413522608452559832007-05-19T20:09:00.000-04:002007-05-19T20:09:00.000-04:00I've read about such a detente in a number of site...I've read about such a detente in a number of sites such as prof cutler and moon of Alabama, etc.<BR/><BR/>The idea is that the U.S. can win over Iran and and the Shiites in southern Iraq and Saudi Arabia into a pro U.S. pro Israel block. This makes perfect sense if Iran is co opted into alliance through regime change, reconciliation with the mullahs (least favored option for the U.S.) or if Iran is broken up by ethnic tension; Persians vs Azeris vs Kurds and so on.<BR/><BR/>It's gotten to the point where options 1 and 3 are out of the picture so the question is can the U.S. come to terms with an Islamic republic it has despised for 30 years?<BR/><BR/>Iran's regime would love to improve relations with the U.S. It's been trying to do so since 1997. But, while the U.S. may have no choice but to cut a deal over Iraq, I don't think it could countenance sharing control of the Persian Gulf with an independent power. Once sanctions are lifted, essential to any comprehensive deal, Iran becomes even more powerful and independent.<BR/><BR/>Take a look at any strategic alliance between the U.S. and country X and you will notice that X = dependent nation<BR/>1)Israel depends on the U.S. almost entirely. <BR/>2)The U.S. attempts to move its European bases from Germany to Romania and Bulgaria.<BR/>3)The kurds in Iraq are the U.S.' closest ally.<BR/>4)When Europe talked of an alliance outside NATO during the 90's the Clinton Admin went ballistic.<BR/><BR/>So the idea that the U.S. can come to terms with a powerful Iran seems far fetched.<BR/><BR/>Its entirely plausable that tactical agreements will be made with Iran to save U.S. chestnuts in Iraq. But the U.S. policy will likely be containment in the long run.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com