tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post9064817372913164427..comments2024-01-21T02:42:13.447-05:00Comments on Middle East Reality: Allawi reported biggest vote getter in Iraqi electionArnold Evanshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11445744338502151561noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-38763739214791257222010-03-27T11:43:45.998-04:002010-03-27T11:43:45.998-04:00It is plausible that Sunnis who fought both an ins...It is plausible that Sunnis who fought both an insurgency against the US and a civil war against the Shiites, now see an alliance with the US as a means to regain some power.<br /><br />Add to that the banning of Salih Mutlak and some others from the election eliminated Allawi's Sunni competitors. Add again the financial and political support the US placed behind Allawi. Now a Allawi victory becomes plausible, even without actual ballot rigging.<br /><br />Regardless, now Allawi has won and it no longer matters how. With regard to Iran, how much difference will it make? My guess is not much at all. He will spend the next several months trying to form a coalition. After failing, someone else from one of the two main Shiite parties will give it a try. Or new elections will be called. I believe this same game was recently played in Lebanon and Iran won. Her odds are even better in Iraq.<br /><br />The only way Allawi becomes PM is by Iran's consent. And its possible Iran will actually give it. Yes he is a CIA asset, but intelligence assets switch sides all the time. In exchange for favorable concessions from Saudi Arabia and the US, Iran could plausibly give its permission. After all, Allawi would only be PM with both Shiite parties in his coalition. The army and state security services are firmly under their control as would be the most important ministries.<br /><br />The bottom line, Allawi isn't going to be the means to meaningful US influence in Iraq.Lysandernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-51919925900222644442010-03-27T05:21:58.977-04:002010-03-27T05:21:58.977-04:00Is it not funny that just after USA' accusitio...Is it not funny that just after USA' accusitions of "Iran's stolen elections" two elections in USA's occupied places were such shameless rigging. Arnold, it was nice of you to give Iraq's sham a benefit of a doubt, but the very time of "counting votes" in Iraq is ridiculous beiong any beningn explanation.lidianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-5146148687349675422010-03-26T21:57:49.883-04:002010-03-26T21:57:49.883-04:00I'm not comfortable with the idea that Allawi ...I'm not comfortable with the idea that Allawi got more seats than any other party without assistance. I have to admit that this is exactly Juan Cole's argument that Ahmadinejad won the election through fraud except 1) the Iranian process is far more transparent 2) I favor investigation and accepting the results if no fraud turns up 3) I fundamentally trust that there is a resourceful opposition on the scene that can and will produce an outcome that is satisfactory.<br /><br />But if there was fraud, it is a sign of a US intention to fight the Shiites more than it is important in itself. If there was fraud, the US is trying to get Allawi either in or significant power conceded to him. He has more resources aligned toward that goal than just enough to report that he won the most seats.<br /><br />What we are going to see in the next weeks is the Shiite/Iranian response to what in a way is a declaration of electoral war by the CIA.<br /><br />The US still has suitcases full of money and the most powerful military in the country. The Shiites have their own assets. We just have to see how it plays out.<br /><br />The Iraqi electoral process seems perfectly designed to allow for undetected fraud though.Arnold Evanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11445744338502151561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-42494853118446570662010-03-26T20:11:03.021-04:002010-03-26T20:11:03.021-04:00he may be the SINGLE greatest vote getter, but he ...he may be the SINGLE greatest vote getter, but he doesn't have a majority nor a ruling coalition. thus the king maker will still be Sadr & the State of Law party (sans Maliki who Sadr doesn't like) and some Kurd combo.<br /><br />See Juan Cole's informed comment.<br />WILLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com