tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post8456280671995079569..comments2024-01-21T02:42:13.447-05:00Comments on Middle East Reality: A US "Damascus-based diplomat" speaks on the Syrian disturbancesArnold Evanshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11445744338502151561noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-17683644355651378882011-06-17T04:45:15.692-04:002011-06-17T04:45:15.692-04:00Turkish troops on Syrian soil without Assad's ...Turkish troops on Syrian soil without Assad's permission? I really really hope not, but I don't think so. I'll believe it if I see it.<br /><br />It could go very badly for Turkey, Turkey in that case would be an occupying force, subject to the same tactics Hezbollah used in Lebanon, with no hope of reaching Damascus or desire to reach Damascus.<br /><br />Syria is not Tahrir Square or Manama that descended into violence. I don't think there ever were actual large-scale peaceful demonstrations in Syria.<br /><br />Syria from the start was small demonstrations that didn't show anything like the societal consensus present in Tunisia, Egypt and Bahrain followed immediately by what by all appearances are outside directed military activities.<br /><br />It is only because they happened in 2011 instead of 2010 that anyone has any thought that it might be a popular movement.<br /><br />Anyway, the US is leaning on Turkey with its maximum force, as are the US colonies, especially Saudi Arabia. So far the pressure has not yielded a tangible result, just talk. I hope it stays that way. We'll see how Erdogan balances things.<br /><br />What Erdogan will know not to do is put Assad into a situation where he has nothing to lose, because Turkey could really be harmed by a conflict with Syria - especially if Assad sees it as the only way to remain in power.<br /><br />Syria does need elections, I still think it can make it to the end of this crisis without elections. But this is not primarily an internal crisis. Bahrain and Yemen are internal crises with much less popular governments with much weaker security forces and are under less pressure because Syria's opposition has vastly deeper outside support.<br /><br />Western diplomats are here saying they are trying to pressure Syrian generals to defect.<br /><br />I see this as very little of a conflict between the people of Syria and Assad, if this was 2010, I don't think anyone would see it that way, just there is a tempting but false comparison to Egypt and Tunisia.Arnold Evanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11445744338502151561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-58240081504885796232011-06-17T00:57:50.761-04:002011-06-17T00:57:50.761-04:00While I can agree that Assad probably has more and...While I can agree that Assad probably has more and stronger support than, Mubarak for example, I do not believe it is anything like a majority support. At the very least, Bashar, and his father before him never consented to an open election to prove it.<br /><br />Therefore, I do believe there is a lot of genuine opposition to the Assad government. Without a contested election, we can only guess at the numbers. Notice that the level of violence far exceeds anything used during the Iran election protests in 2009.<br /><br />That said, there is no reason to think that the US/Israel and SA would refrain from interfering in the uprising and trying to pick from among the protesters the ones more suitable to them. Barring that, then they may very well like to see Syria broken up into several parts. Turkey's suggestion that it may enter Syria to create a buffer zone for refuges can only mean either they are on board with such a plan, or sincerely believe that the Assad regime is behaving beyond the pale. I do not know which.<br /><br />Interestingly, the Assad regime gets little sympathy from the Arab world at large, including those who are implacable opponents of Zionism.<br /><br />My best guess is that initial protests were peaceful and then a combination of government repression and outside interference has since caused it to become violent.<br /><br />It is dificult to predict the outcome. But my guess is that if Assad has the strong support of 35% of the public, he can ride this out, even if the other 65% oppose him. Mubarak had the support of 13% according to post revolution polls and that was very soft support. Meaning they viewed his fall as a regrettable but hardly catastrophic event.<br /><br />If Assad has the support of most Alliwites, Christians and Druze, then he likely has 30% right there. There is likely a portion of the Sunni population that also supports him so 35% or maybe 40 or 45% is plausible.<br /><br />But again, without an election, we cannot know.Lysandernoreply@blogger.com