tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post3661046468567103958..comments2024-01-21T02:42:13.447-05:00Comments on Middle East Reality: Another look at "nuclear weapons capacity"Arnold Evanshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11445744338502151561noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-10415023907543449232009-07-16T02:10:27.329-04:002009-07-16T02:10:27.329-04:00The post election turmoil has left the sharks with...The post election turmoil has left the sharks with the smell of fresh blood. Whether this is wishful thinking remains to be seen. Where Iran will be in 2 years time is anyone's guess. But here are some trends.<br /><br />1) Oil, which had dropped to 35$/barrel seems to be trending back up. At 70$, Iran likely can withstand any sanction. At 100$ it can even prosper.<br /><br />2) Afghanistan seems to be circling the drain. It is unlikely the Taliban will be brought to heel in 2 years time.<br /><br />3) The U.S. withdrawal from Iraq will approach completion.<br /><br />4) Russian-U.S. relations are not getting the Obama boost one might have expected.<br /><br />5) China very loudly backed the Iran government after the elections. A sign that the other major powers can't tolerate an Iran flipped to the U.S.<br /><br />All these things favor Iran.<br /><br />OTOH, The risk of military attack seems less remote than before. Many will argue that Iran's government is weak and that a strike will be the signal for popular uprising. That isn't true but it doesn't mean it wont be believed.<br /><br />Then there is the truly unexpected. Mubarak's death, a new Israel-Lebanon conflict, another 9/11 style attack.<br /><br />On the whole, though, Iran may well be much stronger in 2 years time, forcing the U.S. to make even more concessions than now.Lysandernoreply@blogger.com