tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post3553795406767263957..comments2024-01-21T02:42:13.447-05:00Comments on Middle East Reality: No leadership, no program, no demands: Where are the Iran protests heading?Arnold Evanshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11445744338502151561noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-33824165737394588022009-12-29T13:31:58.324-05:002009-12-29T13:31:58.324-05:00They really sound pathetic, even the more clever a...They really sound pathetic, even the more clever and leftist of them <br /> see the letter from an Iranian protester to As'ad <br /><br />http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2009/12/view-from-iranian-reader.htmllidianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-83623716156440279192009-12-29T01:42:41.431-05:002009-12-29T01:42:41.431-05:00I don't see how an opposition takeover could w...I don't see how an opposition takeover could work.<br /><br />Seriously, the guys lost the election. That cannot be overstated as a huge obstacle against them ever assuming power.<br /><br />What they need is some witnesses who can produce a plausible story of how the fraud was accomplished - how the people who counted the ballots locally haven't said the numbers in the newspapers are wrong even while hundreds of thousands of people take to the street and scores die.<br /><br />Obama is more than openly supporting the protesters. He's very likely funding them and providing operational expertise.<br /><br />The Obama administration is not bold. He will not boldly attack Iran, but he will also not boldly tell Israel that Iran cannot be prevented from becoming nuclear.<br /><br />Instead measures like this look like they can have the United States stumble into a very bad situation.<br /><br />The paralysis around Israel is really related to a US cultural more that Americans who are not bigoted against Jews are still anxious around the idea of disappointing Israel's supporters for fear of unfounded accusations of anti-Semitism.<br /><br />US Mideast policy is really distorted by this anxiety. In this case Obama is supporting the protests to do "something" because to do nothing, even when there are no effective options, would expose him to accusations he'd rather not deal with.<br /><br />The most likely outcome is that Iran will have more time to put facts onto the ground before the US finally comes to the table and accepts a worse deal than it could have gotten now.<br /><br />Unfortunately, in the meantime idealistic kids are out there dying for a movement that not only has no plausible way to taking leadership of the country, but does not even have a plausible way to enact any governmental or societal changes. A movement that is not even asking for any specific governmental or societal changes except maybe "death to Khamenei".<br /><br />Oh well.Arnold Evanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11445744338502151561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-88259328117982594162009-12-28T15:38:36.199-05:002009-12-28T15:38:36.199-05:00Stephen Walt at Foreign Policy wrote an article la...Stephen Walt at Foreign Policy wrote an article last week suggesting that an opposition take over in Iran would potentially be harmful to the US. Iran's national interests would not change, but the governments international prestige would increase.<br /><br />Also, I note that Obama and European leaders are much more openly supportive of the protesters than before. This could be because they perceive weakness in the regime (real or imagined) or because they understand the protests will lead nowhere within Iran and so are trying to maximize their advantage in the international press.Lysandernoreply@blogger.com