tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post2549481286353603048..comments2024-01-21T02:42:13.447-05:00Comments on Middle East Reality: Ahmadinejad reported to accept TRR deal - US reported to threaten blacklist of Iran's central bankArnold Evanshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11445744338502151561noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-47278149321036397742010-02-04T07:31:27.272-05:002010-02-04T07:31:27.272-05:00Have you considered the following: the US is putti...Have you considered the following: the US is putting heavy pressure on China to accept sanctions (via: weapon deal to Taiwan, Dalai Lama visit, free trade, to name a few 'friction points' flaring up the past few days). Now Iran eventually and seemingly accepts the swap deal. To me it sounds a bit like: China getting back at the US, with a 'no need for sanctions', we need to continue talking.<br /><br />Of course, there are probably quite a few other layers of direct/indirect talking. Clinton flat out refused any deal (exchange) about those 3 hikers lost along the border with Kurdistan, the US selling extra patriot missiles to the Gulf monarchies, ... those oddly remind me of those days in September when Obama came out blustering about the 'secret' plant near Qhom, only for a week later to start talking in Geneva.<br />The US admin is getting a bit transparent.philippenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-77876708427600519032010-02-03T11:40:26.250-05:002010-02-03T11:40:26.250-05:00Ahmadinejad's statement is unexpected, meaning...Ahmadinejad's statement is unexpected, meaning that people who didn't expect it, including me, are missing something from our models.<br /><br />What exactly is missing will become clear in time.Arnold Evanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11445744338502151561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-63438435833091694652010-02-03T02:18:06.306-05:002010-02-03T02:18:06.306-05:00Its painful to speculate when we have minimal info...Its painful to speculate when we have minimal information, but I guess I can't help it.<br /><br />Here are some possibilities.<br /><br />1) US arms sales to Taiwan have successfully pressured China into agreeing to some kind of sanctions deal. Not very likely in my view, but I guess it's possible<br /><br />2) Iran has received assurances from Russia/China that the US will not renege on its deal. That could take the form of them backing Iran on enrichment to 20% if the US does renege.<br /><br />3) Ahmadinejad's words were playing the west's game. Accept the US' offer, but attach enough conditions so as they are certain to refuse it. Then Iran can go ahead and enrich to 20% itself.<br /><br />4) Iran fully expects the west to renege and wishes to use their doing so as an excuse to pull out all the stops on its enrichment program.<br /><br />5) A combination of threats have put Iran in a corner and it has simply decided to back down now and fight another day.<br /><br />6) It could be Elbaradei's words you posted about yesterday. Someone managed to convince the Iranians that Obama really is looking for a square deal but needs Iran's help for domestic reasons. I sure hope they didn't fall for that. <br /><br />It could be some combination of the above or it could be something else entirely. Right now, there is no way to know.Lysandernoreply@blogger.com