tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post221792723130675459..comments2024-01-21T02:42:13.447-05:00Comments on Middle East Reality: The thing about 1200 kilogramsArnold Evanshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11445744338502151561noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-74526925631603042602010-05-18T11:16:09.045-04:002010-05-18T11:16:09.045-04:00So far I don't see much, if any downside for I...So far I don't see much, if any downside for Iran. It is a small amount of uranium and by now it is clearly broken away from any idea that Iran's domestic stock must be smaller than the limit the US was claiming earlier.<br /><br />It is a one time symbolic gesture that is an accommodation only to the fact that France was not willing to just sell reactor fuel for cash.<br /><br />If France won't trade the fuel under these terms, then Iran really has to make its own reactor fuel - but the US claims that Iranian efforts to do so constitute a provocation that demands sanctions will not have an audience.<br /><br />The key issue to look at is who in the United States accepts that Iran cannot be prevented from being nuclear capable. The more Americans accept that, the more possible it becomes for the United States to engage Iran without this issue posing an obstacle.<br /><br />The nuclear issue had been positioned as the main obstacle between US and Iranian engagement. What is important is that the nuclear issue is falling as an obstacle and so far there is no new obstacle.Arnold Evanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11445744338502151561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-45237444490221714642010-05-17T18:58:07.457-04:002010-05-17T18:58:07.457-04:00The 'deal' is significant on many levels.
...The 'deal' is significant on many levels.<br />It can be said that it was both sides practicing the art of the possible by compromising. This would be naive.<br />I went to an English boarding school, and I can now imagine some of my old schoolmates now in Government or positions of leadership swearing that the collective West was check-mated by a bunch of third-world golliwogs Iran, Turkey, Brazil and China.<br />It can be said credibly that if the US decides to go along, then the US will have made the realpolitik calculation to get out of the corner that Arnold correctly portrays as it having painted itself into.<br />It can be said that in the long term Iran was the big loser, because by agreeing to accommodate demands that were patently illegal and unfair, it has taken the first steps on the slippery slope of agreement for the sake of expediency and complacency and is no longer a revolutionary state prepared to assert its rights as it did the past three decades.<br />Personally I think the US will find ways to thwart a deal or plough ahead with destabilizing Iran despite a deal, for all the strategic reasons that Arnold has outlined so vividly (Israel, emboldening the Arab vassal states to get cocky ideas, long term competition for influence in Western Asia for the upcoming strategic competition with China, etc., etc...) leaving Iran high and dry, having shown a desire for a deal without achieving its long term interests.<br /><br />I would have preferred a deal like this having been made as part of a grand bargain with the US (which I think the Iranians had been holding out for but gave up on), which would have acknowledged America's 'seniority' in some areas of Iran's foreign policy that were important to the US, while giving Iran assurances against territorial and economic destabilization and eventual lifting of sanctions. As it stands, we can expect the cold war with Iran to continue and intensify even if there is a Uranium exchange.<br /><br />Still, I would like to acknowledge Iran's leaders' standing up for their national interest to the best of their ability. If I had been a counselor the the leadership I may well have advised a compromise sooner, with even worse terms for the country. Who knows maybe history will tell that Iran made the optimum deal possible under the circumstances.Rogerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00506182763667565808noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-79367831248652186992010-05-17T10:26:04.746-04:002010-05-17T10:26:04.746-04:00Re: Mdme Clinton: They call it ta'arouf. They ...Re: Mdme Clinton: They call it ta'arouf. They do not want to hurt.Mullerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06284544475682248201noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-48575118398633391312010-05-17T08:16:22.279-04:002010-05-17T08:16:22.279-04:00The guardian has published the text of the agreeme...The guardian has published the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/julian-borger-global-security-blog/2010/may/17/iran-brazil-turkey-nuclear" rel="nofollow">text of the agreement</a>. I like point 10; The Madam (Clinton) will probably choke on her breakfast coffee.<br /><br />P.philippenoreply@blogger.com