tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post116698301103014722..comments2024-01-21T02:42:13.447-05:00Comments on Middle East Reality: Sanctions on IranArnold Evanshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11445744338502151561noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34135100.post-1167973105621025022007-01-04T23:58:00.000-05:002007-01-04T23:58:00.000-05:00Is Israel worried more about Iran or the USA itsel...Is Israel worried more about Iran or the USA itself? Iran, despite all Ahmadinejad's talk, has no material incentive to launch a first strike against Israel, since this would only cause collosal Israeli retaliation. Meanwhile, the US addiction to oil assures an eternal preoccupation with the region. Sooner or later, the US will want to assert primacy, seize oilfields, squeeze out Chinese buyers, or depose folks who stand in the way. Were Iran to have even a single nuclear warhead on a single hidden missile, this would either prevent any US action. A single nuke on Tel Aviv would be unacceptable to Israel, but be a tolerable price for cheap oil, according to some calculations. Could Israel's fundamental fear be that the US would sooner let Tel Aviv get nuked in reprisal for a US assault on Iran's Ahwaz-Bangestan oil fields, than see China lock in a privileged contract? Would Israel's retaliatory threat then be best aimed at cities in Iran, or Mecca, which US oil could not care about less, or perhaps DC, Atlanta, Houston, or Chicago? This may seem far fetched, but the idea that Iran wants to nuke Israel, just for the good old sake of jihad, is maybe even more nutty.John Kochhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03330791907679543861noreply@blogger.com